Will Refinance rates be most likely dropping or heading back up in the next few weeks? FED buy treasury secur?

Hi,

I’m kind of in a bind and need to get back to my mortgage originator by Wed, so I really appreciate your ideas on this situation. Thanks in advance for any help, and btw if you’re in a hurry just skip to the last paragraph.

We’re in the middle of this refinance, I was locked in at 3.875 a few months back. Had the place appraised back in August and took care of all the details and my obligations right away to get this loan through, but the bank was so darn backlogged that its taken this long for my application to even come up.

The paperwork of the loan said that my 3.875 fixed apr (15year) rate would be held for 45 days. As this 45 days came and went, I was getting worried that they were purposely taking that long so that they wouldn’t have to give me the loan at that rate. After being reassured by my loan originator that they would stand by their rate, and that we could “re-lock” for a 60 day period (they have since changed it from 45 to 60 days because of the backlog) I started looking around at what the current rates actually were. After looking around, I realized rates had dropped and only after I mentioned this to her (he wanted to relock at same 3.875 rate) I was offered a 3.75%.

I can only “re-lock” once so I don’t want to be dumb and take a higher rate than I could have, and I’ve been reading the economic reports that the FED will probably be stimulating the economy by buying treasury securities, which should in theory pull rates down. But they don’t announce this stuff in advance, and I’m not sure that I completely understand this.

I talked to my originator and she mentioned something about the bond market as a good indicator to watch, although when it came down to it she basically didn’t want to offer any kind of advice, which I understand because no one can tell the future of course….but I have a choice to make and since I’m not an expert, I’m looking for the best educated guess I can get.
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*** SO, the big question is, what is the likelihood that the rates might hit 3.625% on a 15 yr fixed loan in the next two or three weeks (or even a month). Again, I KNOW that no one can predict this stuff, but again I can either lock at 3.75 today or holdout for a while and hope for 3.625. At present my current rate is 3.875. The 3.625 rate would wind up saving me thousands of dollars over the course of the loan, what do you think? And if I do watch the bond market as an indicator, what is a good website to look at, and what are the pertinent numbers that I should keep an eye on to get a clearer picture?

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